TUESDAY 9:30 P.M. UPDATE:
A Tornado Watch has been expanded to counties north and west of Kanawha until 4 a.m. Remember a Watch means conditions are favorable for a tornado to form...but none are occurring at the present time.
TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE:
We had some run of the mill downpours with some thunder roll through this afternoon but they came and went without incident. The reason? Severe weather parameters this afternoon were pretty low and clouds kept temperatures down a bit.
A few scattered showers are tracking through northeast Kentucky this evening but overall our weather is pretty quiet through midnight.
However, a Weather Alert remains in effect tonight. Why? Those severe weather parameters (wind shear and instability) will be *increasing* overnight instead of decreasing as is usually the case.
Severe storms prompting tornado warnings are tracking across Indiana and northwest Ohio...and in time that line of storms will make it's way through central and Southeastern Ohio. From there those storms will drop south across West Virginia and Kentucky, likely between 1 to 5 a.m.
Even with the late night arrival some of those storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts in addition to rowdy thunder and lightning and downpours.
An isolated tornado is a possibility, and a Tornado Watch extends up to Lewis and Scioto Counties through 1 a.m. It's possible that could get extended east into other parts of our area so stay tuned.
Locally heavy rain overnight could result in some high water in spots. A Flood Watch is up not just for tonight but into Thursday morning too because we're expecting another round of storms Wednesday evening/overnight as well.
TUESDAY LATE-MORNING UPDATE:
So far, it's been rather murky with spotty sprinkles/shower - not exactly a look that one would think for severe thunderstorms. However, as the warm-front continues to lift north - skies will begin to clear very soon. This will allow our temperatures to rise into the 80s under warm sunshine this afternoon. This daytime heating will boost our instability. When we say instability - we are talking about the willingness for the air to rise on it's own due to being 'lighter' in nature. Warmer air, and humid air believe it or not, are less dense in nature - making them ideal candidates for thunderstorms.
While this is occurring, a push of moisture and some ripples of energy aloft arriving from the west will initiate scattered thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening. While the environmental shear won't be overly strong initially, wind profiles will turn increasingly favorable for severe storms as time goes on. As a result, our Weather Alert is still in effect.
The Storm Prediction Center also keeps a slight risk over most of our area with an enhanced risk across the western counties.
Given the scattered nature of these thunderstorms, it's not a guarantee you'll see a severe one - but where they do occur, they'll be able to tap into the environment more due to lesser cell competition. Typically, this means large hailstones - possibly golf-ball sized or larger in the strongest cells. This is especially true since some of these updrafts will be rotating given the veering wind profile. Just because a thunderstorm rotates doesn't necessarily mean a higher tornado risk - but in today's case, it does to some degree. The lower parts of these storms should acquire more low-level rotation later into the evening as the low-level jet increases. As a result, a tornado or two can't be ruled out - with the best overlapping of ingredients near the Ohio River and points west. These storms will also be capable of pockets of damaging winds and torrential rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding.
In fact, the National Weather Service has a *Flood Watch* up for our area beginning this afternoon and going through Thursday Morning. A general 1-3" of rain is expected in this stretch with localized higher amounts.
Another round of storms is expected late on Wednesday into Thursday Morning. Some of these storms could also turn stronger, but the severe ingredients don't look quite as high - perhaps related to strong/severe storms down near the KY and TN border. This can sometimes reduce the best moisture and instability from making it further north. Nonetheless, strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall appears to be a good bet as some waves of energy track in from the west late.
As for this Tuesday, a scattered severe storm or two may occur as early as 2-3 P.M. across portions of Ohio and Kentucky. The Kanawha Valley and points east still looks dry at that time with temps rising well into the 80s.
By around 5 P.M., our futurecast suggests a few storms making it towards I-77. The main risks with these would be large hail and pockets of damaging winds, but note how relatively scattered they are - some atmospheric roulette.
Even after the sun goes down, there appears to be enough forcing, moisture, shear and even instability to sustain some storms. While the low-level shear will be high - implying an isolated tornado risk - temps should cool enough to keep most of these updrafts rooted just off the surface. It still warrants a watchful eye, though, given the aforementioned ingredients. Don't be surprised to hear some loud thunder and heavy downpours into the overnight period.
After some patchy fog and perhaps a thundershower early on Wednesday, most of the day looks nice and sunny! Temps will soar well into the 80s - toasty, but a good day to get some yardwork done.
Closer to sundown, however, models insist on heavy downpours and stronger thunderstorms developing from the southwest as an impulse of energy arrives out ahead of the cold front. These storms will be capable of strong, gusty winds, hail, lightning and torrential rainfall. Ultimately, their strength will hinge on whether storms are more widespread further south down near the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
We are expecting more showers and storms on Thursday, but the severe weather risk should wane with the atmosphere being overworked some and the front crossing later in the day. In the wake of this, it will turn much cooler for Mother's Day weekend. There could be a few showers, but it will feel more like April instead!
The Eyewitness Storm Team will watch the radar closely all day and night.
MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Storms produced some very heavy rain in parts of the Tri-State Monday evening, with some locations seeing over two inches of rain with some localized high water developing.
Tri-State airport came in just under two inches. Those storms weakened heading east and Charleston saw closer to a quarter inch of rain. High water has since receded out west.
Fog and low clouds will start Tuesday but those will burn off for sun by late morning and temperatures will climb into the 80s with humidity. That will spell enhanced fuel for storms that was lacking Monday.
Storms that produced tornadoes across the Plains have merged into a line out there and will move into the Midwest by dawn. That line and its associated energy will track into our area by mid-late afternoon.
While it won't be as organized as it was Monday any storms in our area can produce large hail and damaging wind gusts as they track through from west to east. With some spin in the atmosphere a tornado is a possibility as well.
We may catch a break in the early evening before more storms develop from the west into the night. Localized high water will be a possibility with this activity.
As a front pushes south we'll get a break in the activity Wednesday but it will be short-lived.
That boundary will lift north again late in the day with more storms developing across Kentucky and lifting northeast through our area into Wednesday night.
In addition to winds and hail this line could also result in more widespread high water issues that could continue into Thursday morning.
MONDAY MORNING UPDATE:
Most of us are starting dry early on this Monday. It's still rather humid out there with any patchy fog lifting into some low clouds. Some pockets of sunshine should boost our temps well into the 70s by around lunchtime. However, an upper air disturbance back towards our west will increase our shower and thunderstorm chances. This rain will occur before lunch across our western counties, and will spread further east by around noon and beyond.
While we aren't expecting a severe weather set-up today, there's enough instability for some storms to produce lightning, torrential downpours and perhaps small hail and gusty winds in a stronger cell or two. Use caution if you're outdoors and be prepared to find a drier place. It won't rain all day, but expecting a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Some of these cells will be rather slow-movers, and there's plenty of moisture in the atmosphere also. This means localized heavy rainfall is a distinct possibility - not only today, but also into Tuesday and beyond. Isolated flash flooding may occur with pockets of 1-2"+ of rainfall in a short amount of time. Through the entire week, the vast majority of us will see 2-4" of rain. Granted, this will be spread out over time - but will still likely cause areas of high water at times.
Unfortunately, today and Tuesday won't be the only days with high rain chances this week. Wednesday Night into Thursday will also be unsettled. By Friday, more widespread rain will be replaced with a few showers.
This means if you're trying to mow your lawn this week - you'll have to keep a close eye on the radar! It looks like you'll find some dry time Tuesday Morning and much of the afternoon. Wednesday may see more dry time overall, but still can't rule out a scattered shower or thunderstorm at times.
Unlike today, any storms forming on Tuesday will have a lot more environmental wind energy aloft to tap into. This means thunderstorms can tilt over more, which allows the updraft and storm to survive longer. The longer a storm survives, the higher odds of it turning severe. The Storm Prediction Center has most of us in a level two risk for Tuesday. The greatest risks in any strong/severe thunderstorm would be large hail and pockets of damaging winds. However, there is enough low-level shear later in the day for an isolated tornado or two. This risk appears to be a bit higher back into the Tri-State area.
Out ahead of these storms on Tuesday, there looks to be plenty of sunshine - and with a southwest breeze also - it will feel more like summer. Temps look to rise well into the 80s with humidity also. This means the air will be prime to accelerate upwards on it's own - but an impulse of energy late in the afternoon and evening will only augment those vertical motions. Here's what the radar may look like on Tuesday Evening - showing scattered cells instead of a line of storms.Hi-res models don't show these thunderstorm forming into a line - which is good and bad. While this means some of us will miss the worst weather, it also means each individual cell will be able to 'eat' more - increasing the tornado potential.
Even after the sun goes down, there will be enough instability and certainly enough shear to sustain some thunderstorms well into the night. You'll want to have a way to get warnings to play it safe.
But Tuesday isn't the only risk for severe thunderstorms. While much of Wednesday looks warm and breezy with some sunshine - another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is a decent bet later in the evening and overnight. These storms may try to form into a line, which could increase the wind potential - but that remains to be seen.
Finally by later on Thursday into the weekend, the severe weather risk will wane - but it will be turning much cooler for Mother's Day Weekend.
The Eyewitness Storm Team will keep a close eye on this severe weather and flooding potential.
SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE:
Our extended dry stretch that ended April and began May has ended, although Sunday's showers and storms were generally brief and more scattered compared to Saturday's.
Daytime activity has faded with nightfall and the rest of Sunday night looks quiet. However, a front moving in from the west will stall and provide the path for a wave of low pressure in the Missouri Valley. This will bring clouds back by dawn Monday with a shower chance for the morning commute west of Huntington.
Most of us should get to work and school without rain but scattered showers and storms will increase by midday and the afternoon.
Severe weather isn't expected as wind energy and instability is weak, but locally heavy rain (up to an inch) could create some nuisance and very localized high water.
This stalling front will be a problem for much of the rest of the week, with stronger waves of low pressure set to track along it.
Wind energy and instability will be stronger by Tuesday afternoon and after some morning sun boosts temperatures to 80 a round of stronger storms looks likely to move in from west to east in the afternoon.
Gusty winds and hail appear to be the primary threat, along with heavy rain, although a faster motion with these could limit high water potential. Because of the threat for severe weather Tuesday afternoon will be a Weather Alert day.
We'll likely see a lull into part of Wednesday before an even stronger wave tracks over our just to our north into Thursday morning.
This will likely bring another organized area of storms into the area, especially late in the day or Wednesday night. This activity could have more flooding potential with it along with high winds and hail. This period will also be a Weather Alert day, although the exact timing is more uncertain than Tuesday at this point.
Rainfall totals from Monday to Thursday could reach more than three inches locally, which is why the flood concern will increase.
A cold front will pass through Thursday which will shunt the deeper moisture south of us by the end of the week. Showers are still likely Friday but the severe risk will be over. Temperatures will be much cooler, holding in the 60s for the day.